The Berlin Christmas Market Attack and the Deployment of Simple Tactics
First, as the name implies, a simple attack requires far less resources, funding and planning. In fact, often the group that is ultimately held responsible for such attacks had no knowledge of the operation prior to it occurring. Digital propaganda tools like Al Qaeda’s Inspire Magazine are often used to broadcast a call for violence against targets in the west. Firearms, knives, blunt weapons and vehicles are often the only weapon needed to perform these attacks. Quite often, the organization calling for such attacks has no direct, two-way communication with the attacker. This increases the likelihood of attacks while releasing terror groups from the burden of planning and carrying out such attacks with operatives of their respective organizations. Furthermore, it severely diminishes the opportunity for detection and prevention by security forces In the West.
Like Al Qaeda, the Islamic State terror group has used a digital platform to call for violence. In fact, Islamic State’s Dabiq and Rumiyah digital magazines have been highly effective in inspiring violence throughout the West. Many of the recent attacks in the West, like the one in Orlando’s Pulse nightclub, were inspired by the propaganda of the Islamic State terror group, but required no further organizational support to launch the attack. These terror groups, in many cases, have substituted their highly-trained terror operatives for the highly susceptible yet easily motivated Lone Wolf attacker. At least part of the reason for this change in tactics has to do with the pressure being put on these groups by the countries battling them on several fronts. Al Qaeda, unfortunately, had the luxury of planning the 9/11 attacks during a period when the United States and other powers were all but blind to the clues of complex terror planning. Since then, the US security apparatus has grown both in size and sophistication. Planning such a multi-dimensional attack now would be far more susceptible to discovery and prevention by intelligence agencies and security forces.
Another reason terror groups have opted for less sophisticated attacks has to do with capability. The Islamic State terror group has had its hands full with a full-scale military campaign and the governing of large swaths of land in the Middle East since 2014. This leaves less time to train for and perform highly complex attacks on the West using their own operatives. It is far easier to simply recruit unknown and unstable supporters around the world to carry out these attacks for them. Unfortunately, it seems apparent that there is a healthy supply of those willing to answer their call.
What is the next step in the evolution of terror tactics? I fear it may be the infiltration of hardened and trained terror operatives into countries in the West with the intention of carrying out devastating attacks. As the Islamic State loses its last geographic stronghold in Iraq there is much contemplation about the groups future. Many security professionals, myself included, feel that as the group goes underground many of the members with intact passports will return to the West. Even more may return to the West as refugees. These individuals possess battlefield experience and training in terror tactics that can make them far more dangerous than the typical Lone Wolf attacker. Identifying these individuals and preventing future attacks may be our next great challenge as the war on terror rages on.
